Archive for June, 2009
I’m Calling a Near Term Top in the Mkt
by Tony on Jun.12, 2009, under The Gooch
I don’t have time to get into the specifics but take note– I have my reasons. I will trade the market I see so if the technicals prove me wrong– big deal. I will still bank coin.
My Trading Rules
by Tony on Jun.09, 2009, under The Gooch
I was on Matt Trivisonno’s trading blog (www.Trivisonno.com) and Stringm reminded me that I never posted my trading rules. Below is an explanation of why it is important to have a set of personal trading rules followed by my own set of trading rules.
It is crucial for traders to have a set of rules and adhere to such rules under all circumstances. I have developed a set of rules that help me trade with a very high rate of accuracy and eliminate most of the emotion from my trades, provided the rules are followed. The hardest part about a set of rules is actually following them. You can be the best analyst or stock picker and still lose money if you do not have a set of trading/investing rules that are strictly followed. My rules may not be suitable for your trading style, but once you develop a set of rules that, it will eliminate a significant amount of emotion from your trades and I bet your profits will increase substantially. I did not become a profitable trader until the hedge fund I worked for went bust and I began trading my own capital full-time, at which point I realized I needed a set of rules.
Below are my trading rules, which I consider before trade execution (I actually read all of these rules before each trade). Are there any rules that work for you that I have not included below? Feel free to share with the group.
- Verbalize the reasons for each trade aloud
- Exit prices must be predetermined (stops and limits—can be mental or electronic) and cannot be changed unless there is a very good reason. Identify the circumstances that will justify breaking the trade (strong TICK, strength in leading indexes/stocks, etc)
- Identify if the trade is a scalp or longer trending trade. If the trade has a lot of potential, sell fractions prior to resistance levels, but leave a portion on until a lower high is made
- Size trade based on maximum loss if stop is triggered and verbalize maximum potential loss.
- Treat each trade independent of prior trades (size, duration, stops/limits, etc). Don’t let prior bad trades affect objectivity
- Check indicators and other indexes prior to trade (TICK, stoch, XLF, IWM, GS, AAPL) – Do they confirm the trade?
- Is it the right time to execute the trade? For example, afternoon reversals and large continuation moves usually occur during the last hour or last 15 minutes; channel formations usually last longer than you expect; breakouts usually do not occur until the VWAP (volume wtd. avg. price) is tested and held; securities usually bounce on their first test of the VWAP
- Exercise patience: if stock is following a trend line, wait for a pullback unless breakout appears imminent
- If angry, step away for 15 minutes and engage in another form of stimulation
- Trade light during the first 15-30 min of trading or until there is a clear breakout
- Goal is to follow the rules: Strict adherence to the above rules will “make it rain”
TICK Says: No Reason to Be Short Intraday Yet
by Tony on Jun.01, 2009, under The Gooch
There isn’t a single TICK reading below -400 (lowest reading was -383) and there have been several readings above +1,000. There was a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, however the lack of signicant selling pressure does not support initiating a short position. 